Diskussionen » his brakes failed in Germany and his c

Each round of the playoffs, I like to forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. It offers no assurances and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. Last year, this method forecasted the first round at a 7-1 clip; this year it was 5-3, with losses on Columbus, Colorado and San Jose. In the first two cases, their strong goaltending led to a calculated advantage, but it can be difficult for goaltending superiority to take effect over much larger samples, let alone seven games. As for the Sharks, they were in a virtual toss-up situation with the Kings, favoured by the smallest of margins. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, Boston had 32.1 shots on goal per game and Montreal has allowed 28.6 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.35 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for Round Two: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 32.1 29.3 Tuukka Rask 0.933 15.93 Montreal 30.9 28.6 Carey Price 0.925 14.12 Verdict: The Bruins are favoured, with a slightly better shot differential and slightly better goaltending, and its simple enough that way. But when the Habs and Bruins meet in the playoffs, strange things can happen. Higher-seeded Canadiens teams have been bounced by lower-seeded Bruins teams and vice versa. Between these two incarnations of the Canadiens and Bruins is a wonderful contrast in styles as the Bruins are more physically-imposing while the Canadiens are a smaller, skilled group. While some teams (including the Red Wings in Round One) avoid getting into confrontations with the Bruins, the Canadiens havent always taken that approach, and it not only makes for entertaining hockey, it adds some variability to the process. Furthermore, if the Canadiens can keep Tuukka Rask off his game (his .908 save percentage vs. Montreal is his lowest vs. teams that hes faced at least 10 times in his career), then that could help close the calculated gap between the teams. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 30.4 29.1 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.66 N.Y. Rangers 33.1 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.920 18.50 Verdict: The Penguins were forecasted to lose -- or, more accurately, score fewer goals -- against Columbus, but here they are in the second round, looking at a similar forecast, against a team with a better shot differential and better goaltending. The Penguins are healthier than theyve been for most of the season, which helps, and they have elite forwards that can shake results. The Rangers could control play and it wouldnt take a Henrik Lundqvist collapse to see the Penguins get through. All it might take is Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin going off for a few games. Heck, they managed to get past Columbus with contributions from a lot more than Crosby and Malkin. Defencemen Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen led the Penguins with eight points, Brandon Sutter added five and Beau Bennett chipped in four. In my playoff picks, I had the Penguins going past the Rangers and its on the expectation that, at some point, the Penguins elite players will bury more of their chances, though that also requires some faith in Marc-Andre Fleury and that hasnt been a safe feeling for the Penguins in the playoffs for quite some time. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Frederik Andersen 0.918 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 17.33 Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Jonas Hiller 0.912 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.60 Verdict: I presume that the Ducks are going back to rookie Frederik Andersen, even after he was pulled twice against Dallas in the first round (but I included calculations for Hiller anyway). This is another really close series in which the Kings get slightly favoured because they have superior shot differential. The Ducks have exceeded more advanced possession metrics all year, in part because they have been insanely fortunate when it comes to shooting in close games. Oh, and here too. That isnt the kind of thing that seems possible to repeat over time but, it worked enough to take down Dallas in the first round, so it wouldnt come as a shock if they can do it against Los Angeles. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 18.15 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Darcy Kuemper 0.914 15.59 Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 20.05 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.905 15.59 Verdict: Again, a presumption that the Wild will have Darcy Kuemper to start the series, despite leaving Game Seven against Colorado with an injury. If the Wild are really rolling with Ilya Bryzgalov, then the forecast will be unfavourable, just as it was in the first round, but if Kuemper is in, he offers a slightly better chance. No matter who is in net for the Wild, though, they will have their hands full, because they are facing a team that generates a whole lot more shots than their opponents. So long as Corey Crawford is decent, and there arent any major injuries, then the Blackhawks will warrant their status as prohibitive favourites. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap New Jersey Devils Jerseys . -- Zach Johnson is like most players at the World Challenge, not sure whether hes still playing in 2013 or if hes in the middle of the new wraparound season that officially started in October. Cheap Devils Jerseys China . Nikolaos Kounenakis has been hired as an assistant coach, the team announced on Monday. http://www.cheapdevilsjerseys.com/. The club says its first-choice centre back "underwent medical tests on Wednesday morning" which confirmed he has injured his right hamstring. The injury was caused in the second minute of Tuesdays 4-1 league win over Real Sociedad in the Camp Nou when teammate Sergio Busquets accidentally struck Mascherano just above the knee with an outstretched boot. Cheap Adidas Devils Jerseys . - Golden State Warriors coach Mark Jackson sat on the scorers table at Oracle Arena on Wednesday morning. Cheap Devils Jerseys Authentic .Bacca took advantage of Cristian Alvarezs hesitation to head a lobbed pass over the goalkeeper and then used his feet to roll the ball into an empty net in the eighth minute. The Colombia strikers 10th goal pulled him level with Lionel Messi as the leagues third-leading scorers, far behind Cristiano Ronaldos runaway tally of 23 goals.Lewis Hamiltons latest engine blow-out not only gifted Nico Rosberg a 23-point lead in the title race, but also had the world champion demanding reliability answers from his Mercedes team. It is not my lowest point - I have had lower points for sure - but in terms of feeling helpless that is the most helpless I can be at this point, said the three-time world champion.Mercedes admitted at Sepang they could give no explanation to their driver for why he has persistently suffered reliability failures this year and as F1 hurtles towards the final stretch of the 2016 season, there are no guarantees that Hamiltons car wont break down again - and cost him a third successive world title. How unlucky has Hamilton been?Hamilton has suffered five specific instances of debilitating unreliability this year. They are:An ERS failure at the start of qualifying in China, relegating him to 22nd on the grid. He finished seventh.An ERS failure during Q3 in Russia, restricting the Mercedes driver to 10th on the grid. He finished second.An engine mode issue during the European GP. He finished fifth having started in 10th following a crash in qualifying.A hydraulics fault during Practice Two in Singapore which was cited as a critical factor in his defeat to Rosberg. He finished third.An engine blow-out in Malaysia which cost him an almost-certain victory.There is, of course, no way of determining how many points Hamiltons bad luck has cost. But it could be reasonably argued that it has denied him at least 40 points this year - 12 in China, when Mercedes were a class above the rest, 25 in Sepang, and ten in Belgium when Hamilton was relegated to the back of the grid after Mercedes introduced fresh power units to compensate for his early-season failures.Hamilton supporters would also argue unreliability accounted for more lost points in Sochi and Singapore, but its by no means clear the Englishman had a pace advantage over his Mercedes team-mate Rosberg on those weekends. Lewis Hamilton’s engine fails whist leading the Malaysia GP Does it really only happen to Hamilton?While the conspiracy theorists inevitably blew a gasket after Hamiltons Sepang blow-out, the notion Hamilton is the victim of deliberate sabotage can be instantly dismissed. Hamilton is the teams most powerful asset, any deliberate sleight of hand would have been uncovered in such a forensically-scrutinised operation, and there are easier and more subtle ways of crippling a car than making its engine go bang with 15 laps of a grand prix to go. But that doesnt explain why Hamilton has suffered the brunt of Mercedes unreliability this year.I just cant believe that theres eight Mercedes cars and only my engines are the ones that have gone this way, he told Sky F1 in Malaysia. It was a brand new engine. Its just odd. Theres been like 43 engines for Mercedes and only mine have gone.What he said was absolutely factual, acknowledged Sky F1 pundit Martin Brundle. It is difficult to understand.Even Hamiltons numbers added up: each of the eight cars powered by Mercedes have received the five power units every driver is allowed to use without penalty this season. The remaining three are the trio of fresh units the team brought to Belgium for their lead driver. And one of those has already blown up - with the fear now that the batch introduced at Spa may be plagued by a chronic fault.In short, Hamiltons Sepang blow-out may yet happen again. So why always him?Could it be installation problems? mused Brundle in his latest column for Sky Sports. Its very unlikely because there have been different failures and given the experience, processes and data this would show up quickly.How about driving style? With the latest seamless shift gearboxes it is impossible to miss a gear or over-rev on downshift. If hes bouncing off all the kerbs and putting extra load through the transmission and power plant it would be clear to see in the data.Which only leaves bad luck - and Hamiltons suggestion that a higher power may be working against him. Given that F1 is important but not that importaant, it has to be simply a case of bad luck.dddddddddddd Would Rosberg be a lucky champion?The German has undoubtedly been the chief beneficiary of Hamiltons bad luck this year, but Rosberg himself is no stranger to misfortune after plenty of reliability problems in 2014 and 2015.Ive been in his position, Rosberg said on Sunday. I know how terrible it is in that moment. Non-scores due to mechanical problems Lewis Hamilton Nico Rosberg 2013 0 3 2014 2 3 2015 1 2 2016 1 0 Total 4 8 But measuring bad luck is a complex business. For instance, the above table doesnt take into account the qualifying breakdowns Hamilton suffered midway through the 2014 season when his brakes failed in Germany and his car caught fire in Hungary. And detailing a mechanical glitch can be a multi-layered arrangement. Take Rosbergs grid penalty in Austria, for example, when the German driver was demoted five places after a gearbox change. Mechanical failure? Yes and no. The unit was broken, but only after Rosberg crashed in practice, an accident which in turn was attributed to a suspension failure that may or may not have been caused by Rosberg riding too far over the circuits notorious sausage kerbs.Nevertheless, it can be stated as fact that Rosbergs car hasnt been completely bullet-proof this year. His W07 suffered a gearbox glitch late in the British GP, a malfunction which ultimately demoted him from second to third and enabled Hamilton to take the lead of the title race.But while Rosberg hasnt been entirely immune from misfortune this year, there have been none of the clear-cut, high-profile, high-impact bad breaks which have repeatedly beset his team-mate. How fortunate was Rosberg in Malaysia?The world championship leader certainly rode his luck on Sunday. He could have been wiped out of the race at the first turn when his Mercedes collided with Sebastian Vettel. His W07 could have then suffered terminal damage when the rest of the field hurtled into Turn One but somehow avoided hitting the spinning Mercedes. He could have suffered self-inflicted race-ending damage when he barged into the side of Kimi Raikkonens Ferrari. And although he was then punished by the steward for causing the collision, the punishment - ten seconds of track time - was less than the amount of time Raikkonen, who finished directly behind Rosberg in fourth, lost due to the damage done to the floor of his car.The Formula 1 Gossip columnMost saliently of all, Rosberg lucked into a 28-point swing when Hamilton retired from the lead. But for the failure on the other W07, Rosberg would have been second in the standings heading to Japan. Instead he leads by 23 with just five races to go.But bad luck tends to be a fickle interloper. Hamilton has been persistently unfortunate throughout 2016 but there are still 20 other drivers in the field envious of his good fortune to be in the title race. And all it would take for him to regain the lead of the World Championship this weekend in Japan is victory and one piece of very bad luck for Rosberg. Also See: Hamilton down but not out Paper review: Conspiracy talk absurd The Formula 1 Gossip Column Full 2016 calendar and schedule Cheap Buffalo Sabres Gear Wholesale Calgary Flames Jerseys Cheap Adidas Colorado Avalanche Jerseys Montreal Canadiens Outlet Store Wholesale New Jersey Devils Jerseys Adidas Arizona Coyotes Jerseys Cheap Adidas Boston Bruins Jerseys Cheap Adidas Carolina Hurricanes Jerseys Chicago Blackhawks Shop Free Shipping Wholesale Columbus Blue Jackets Jerseys Dallas Stars Shop Free Shipping Cheap Adidas Detroit Red Wings Jerseys Anaheim Ducks Jerseys China Wholesale Edmonton Oilers Jerseys Florida Panthers Shop Free Shipping Wholesale Los Angeles Kings Jerseys Minnesota Wild Outlet Store Cheap Adidas Nashville Predators Jerseys Cheap Adidas New York Islanders Jerseys New York Rangers Winter Classic Jerseys Cheap Adidas Ottawa Senators Jerseys Cheap Adidas Philadelphia Flyers Jerseys Wholesale Pittsburgh Penguins Jerseys Cheap Adidas San Jose Sharks Jerseys St. Louis Blues Winter Classic Jerseys Wholesale Tampa Bay Lightning Jerseys Toronto Maple Leafs Outlet Store Vancouver Canucks Outlet Store Cheap Adidas Vegas Golden Knights Jerseys Cheap Adidas Washington Capitals Jerseys Cheap Adidas Winnipeg Jets Jerseys ' ' '